Collaborative Research: Forecasting the outcome of long-lived unrest episodes in large felsic calderas: Campi Flegrei (Italy)

About This Grant

Campi Flegrei is one of the most dangerous volcanoes in the world. It is located near Naples, Italy, close to the famous sites of Pompeii and Mount Vesuvius. More than 1.3 million people live in the area, and millions of tourists visit each year. The ground at Campi Flegrei has risen by more than 4 meters since the 1950s, and the area has experienced many earthquakes. These warning signs have become stronger in recent years, raising concern about a possible eruption. This project will build a computer model to help scientists understand whether the volcano is getting closer to erupting. The study will focus on modern times, when satellite and ground data are available, and the centuries before the last eruption in 1538 using historical and archaeological records. The model could also help forecast activity at similar volcanoes in the United States, like Yellowstone and Long Valley in California. This research will provide training for an early-career scientist and a student intern and will strengthen collaboration between scientists in the United States and Italy. This grant supports scientific progress and helps protect lives and communities from natural disasters. This study aims to improve our understanding of the volcanic and seismic hazard associated with the ongoing unrest at Campi Flegrei, one of the most densely populated volcanoes of the world. The goal of the project is to conduct a series of numerical data assimilation experiments using the Ensemble Kalman Filter (EnKF) with high-fidelity, multiphysics 3D finite element method (FEM) models to evaluate Campi Flegrei’s deformation data from 1946 to present and its historical unrest from 1251 to 1538. The EnKF-FEM approach will allow calculation of variations in the stress field from the magmatic system while also considering the effects of topography, rheology, and pre-existing weakness due to caldera faults. The proposed investigation will be the first study of its kind at Campi Flegrei and the first investigation to use the EnKF-FEM technique to calculate stress evolution of a magma system over such a long-time series. An aim is to demonstrate that the EnKF can significantly improve our ability to track the stress field over time at long-term deforming volcanoes. Additionally, the project will address critical questions regarding the Campi Flegrei magma system: Q1. How have repeated unrest episodes at Campi Flegrei impacted the evolution of stress? Q2. What is the estimated state of stress presently? Q3. How might the ongoing unrest impact the state of stress in the future? Q4. What was the state of stress prior to the 1538 eruption? The expected results will provide critical insights into ongoing unrest at Campi Flegrei. This work will provide a tool to evaluate unrest episodes in large felsic calderas worldwide (e.g., Toba, Long Valley, Yellowstone). This project will support the career development of a postdoctoral researcher and fund a summer intern who will participate with a cohort of students to explore opportunities for graduate study and careers in the geosciences. Finally, an educational module on Campi Flegrei will be developed for 100-level Natural Disasters courses and made available via GETSI (GEodesy Tools for Societal Issues) hosted by SERC (Science Education Resource Center). This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.