NERC-NSFGEO: BISTO: Better Ice Sheet forecasts via Transient assimilation and refined Ocean forcing

About This Grant

This is a project jointly funded by the National Science Foundation’s Directorate for Geosciences (NSF/GEO) and the National Environment Research Council (NERC) of the United Kingdom (UK) via the NSF/GEO-NERC Lead Agency Opportunity. This Lead Agency Opportunity allows a single joint US/UK proposal to be submitted and peer-reviewed by the Agency whose investigator has the largest proportion of the budget. Upon successful joint determination of an award recommendation, each Agency funds the proportion of the budget that supports scientists at institutions in their respective countries. Antarctic ice mass loss is linked to the way the ocean interacts with floating ice shelves around the continent, which will play a key role in controlling how fast glaciers flow into the sea. Reproducing historic records of mass loss has proven challenging because ice sheets respond relatively slowly to changes, carrying the imprint of many past events, and because important processes, like how ocean-driven melting affects ice shelves, are not fully captured by current models. This project will address these challenges by combining state-of-the-art satellite observations with advanced glacier modeling and high-resolution ocean simulations to capture interactions and feedbacks between Antarctica’s glaciers and the surrounding ocean. By delivering the most reliable projections yet of Amundsen Sea Sector, Antarctica's most dynamic region, the project will address critical knowledge gaps regarding 21st century ice loss from Antarctica. This project will reduce uncertainty in 21st century ice loss from Antarctica through next-generation assimilation of satellite observations into ice sheet models and advance Earth system downscaling through high-resolution ocean simulations. This will be achieved through the following objectives: 1) improve ice-sheet data assimilation to capture the current dynamic state of Antarctic glaciers and reduce model uncertainty, 2) improve model representation of poorly constrained ice processes by leveraging the results of assimilation, 3) develop an effective modeling treatment for ocean-driven melt through high-resolution simulations, 4) improve projections of 21st century sea-level contributions through coupled modelling of dynamic Antarctic glaciers under different emission scenarios. This collaboration will produce novel 21st century projections of ocean-driven ice loss from Antarctica that are consistent with the full range of satellite observations of ice sheet thinning, ice-stream acceleration, and ice-shelf melt. By focusing on regions in West and East Antarctica with the strongest thinning rates and oceanic forcing, this project will greatly reduce uncertainties in century-scale ice loss and provide step-change improvements in ice-sheet data assimilation and ice-ocean modelling to the Antarctic modeling community. This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.